Stan, you're right. There are a lot of moving parts, starting with the President, beyond my capability to predict. There's at least a possibility still of a substantial revenue pick-up from tariffs. not suggesting that's good policy, but it can make the numbers better. My basic point is that this bill probably yields more, rather than less, stability and that hasn't proven good in the past.
You are right about the ephemeral nature of taxes. Back in the Reagan Adminsitration, you had a principled deficit hawk, David Stockman, who saw Congress didn’t do what he had hoped—cut spending to adjust to the lower tax revenue so the deficit wouldn’t balloon. So he did what you said—he broadened the base by eliminating loopholes. Query: do we have anyone with principles or any deficit hawks with spines any more? Based on recent events, they must be in hiding. Maybe the sinking dollar and battered Treasuries will get someone’s attention. Will Trump repeal the tax breaks since they’re worth only $30,000 to billionaires, a tenth of what they spend on a car? I doubt it. Maybe they will tax capital more since it’s gotten a free ride for decades, enabling creation of thousands of billionaire. Or ditch breaks for hedge funds. Options exist if reality intrudes into deliberations. No sign yet it will. But like you, I sure hope that will change.
Stan, you're right. There are a lot of moving parts, starting with the President, beyond my capability to predict. There's at least a possibility still of a substantial revenue pick-up from tariffs. not suggesting that's good policy, but it can make the numbers better. My basic point is that this bill probably yields more, rather than less, stability and that hasn't proven good in the past.
great analysis as always
You are right about the ephemeral nature of taxes. Back in the Reagan Adminsitration, you had a principled deficit hawk, David Stockman, who saw Congress didn’t do what he had hoped—cut spending to adjust to the lower tax revenue so the deficit wouldn’t balloon. So he did what you said—he broadened the base by eliminating loopholes. Query: do we have anyone with principles or any deficit hawks with spines any more? Based on recent events, they must be in hiding. Maybe the sinking dollar and battered Treasuries will get someone’s attention. Will Trump repeal the tax breaks since they’re worth only $30,000 to billionaires, a tenth of what they spend on a car? I doubt it. Maybe they will tax capital more since it’s gotten a free ride for decades, enabling creation of thousands of billionaire. Or ditch breaks for hedge funds. Options exist if reality intrudes into deliberations. No sign yet it will. But like you, I sure hope that will change.